A ZERO-INFLATED BETA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING FIRST-YEAR PERFORMANCE IN UNIVERSITY CAREER

The background preparation of students entering the university system is checked through evaluation tests in Italy. The test is non-selective in most degree programmes, as it does not preclude the possibility of enrolling in the student’s chosen program. However, the initial preparation and attitude of the students seem to be key issues in explaining their performance and predicting the performance outcome of their first-year in university. The evaluation test results are used to predict the students’ performance at the end of the first year by a zero inflated beta regression model. The analysis was conducted on the evaluation test carried out in 2013 with students at the Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa.